That’s probably because it is:

GLOUCESTER, Mass. — The city’s mayor said Monday there is no evidence a group of young girls made a pact to get pregnant and raise their babies together, seeking to dispel an explosive theory put forth by the high school principal.

“Any planned blood-oath bond to become pregnant - there is absolutely no evidence of,” Mayor Carolyn Kirk said Monday after a closed-door meeting with city, school and health leaders.

That’s right - the same story that I and so many others dealt with recently is probably a hoax, all perpetrated by someone who wanted to make a point about teenage pregnancy.

There’s an old and often repeated saying that I’ve heard time and again:

Do not attribute to malice that which can be easily explained by stupidity.

In short, it’s possible that the girls had a pact before they got pregnant in some sort of Lifetime Channel-style American Pie-esque virginity pact.  It’s also entirely possible that a lot of the girls got pregnant at roughly the same time (intentionally or otherwise) and one or two of their friends might have been disappointed that they couldn’t join in the “fun”.  Of course, the end result is the same, but, without the story of the pact, there wouldn’t be anywhere near the kind of media speculation that we’re seeing today.

Now, are pregnancy rates at that school higher than usual?  Sure:

Kirk cited privacy concerns in refusing to answer many questions about the 17 girls who became pregnant this school year - more than quadruple the number who generally become pregnant as the school.

The key fact to keep in mind, though, is that, when 17 is quadruple the number who generally become pregnant in a year, that means that the normal number is no more than four, which is a pretty small number, unless this particular high school has ten students per grade or something.  That would be like me saying that I got drunk twice as much this month as normal without detailing how many times I get drunk a month.  If I only get drunk once a month, getting drunk twice as much isn’t a sign of a burgeoning drinking problem.  On the other hand, if I’m normally drunk ten times a month, well, that’s a different story - that means I’m now getting drunk 2/3 of the month.

In short, the signal-to-noise ratio on this story is off, and the latest on this story is only helping to drive that point home.

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