Brainstorming

I stumbled across this article at American Thinker today that detailed how Obama won the Presidential election:

Anyone hoping to launch a successful counterattack must first analyze Obama’s campaign and assess the factors that contributed to its success. To assist in such efforts, I have constructed a block diagram [1] of the post-nomination campaign’s components, interactions, and successive stages [2]. A study of this diagram will, I think, reveal interactions that are too complex to be sorted out and comprehended from a verbal description alone.

[...]

The diagram is colored according to the phases of the campaign, which, like a military campaign, can be divided into the resources provided by the terrain, available forces and weapons, strategy and tactics, and objectives to be taken [3].

Click on the link above to actually see the diagram - it’s pretty impressive, honestly.  This got me thinking, though, especially with the LP State Convention coming up - what should be our plan?  What resources does the Libertarian Party have here?  What tools do we have to leverage these resources?  What objectives can we hope to take?  Realistically, we have to accept that, at the present time, our strategic space is very limited.  If we’re lucky, we might match Belgium’s performance in World War 1 - slow the enemy down and remain a viable force through the end.  If we’re unlucky, we might match Belgium’s performance in World War 2 - slow the enemy down for a couple of days but ultimately get overrun.  At the present time, we’re, at best, a minor annoyance for the major parties.  We don’t get enough votes for either major party to bother currying any real favor with us, much less view us as any serious, credible threat.  This means that, unless we identify our strengths and weaknesses and develop an appropriate plan based on our resources and capabilities, we’ll be doomed to continue our string of Luxembourg-esque performances[1].

So, what resources are provided by Nevada to the Libertarian Party, or, really, any third party in this state?

• Voters are becoming increasingly disenchanted with the wild government spending in Washington.  This happens when you rack up trillions of deficit spending and give half of it to bankers and hedge fund managers.
• The economy is dismal.  People are looking for a change.
• After rampant corruption and profligate spending for the better part of a decade, fiscally conservative people have largely given up on the Republican Party.
• The Democratic Party is, understandably, taking the freedom loving, socially liberal minded voters for granted.  Whenever anyone asks the Democratic Party to do anything about, for example, gay marriage or the Drug War, the answer is always “We’ll get around to it.”
• Nevada politics has long had a “live and let live” attitude, which is how we ended up with legalized gambling, legal brothels, some of the most liberal marriage and divorce laws in the country, and no blue laws.  This vein isn’t as deep as it used to be - the recent influx of less libertarian minded residents has drained it somewhat - but it’s still there.  Ron Paul, for example, would have won Nevada during the GOP primaries were it not for some questionable practices at the end.
• The state government has been laughably mismanaged for years, with both parties playing ridiculous games of chicken against a steadily dwindling per-capita tax base.
• Neither party has historically been dominant throughout Nevada’s history, nor does it look like that will change anytime soon.
• Between the remnants of Ron Paul’s campaign in Nevada and various Libertarian-leaning social groups at the university level, there is a large field of activists ready and willing to be tapped, provided the State LP can prove its legitimacy and effectiveness.

What tools can the Libertarian Party bring to bear to maximize its advantages in the state?  Unfortunately, things are much less positive here:

• The biggest Libertarian personality in Nevada is Wayne Allen Root, who has been largely blacklisted by the existing State LP leadership.
• The Libertarian Party in Nevada generally averages about 1-2% of the vote each year in the races that it manages to enter.
• There are fewer than 10,000 registered Libertarians, accounting for less than 1% of the voting electorate.
• The State LP has, at most, a few dozen activists, organized in fewer than half of Nevada’s counties.

On the other hand, we do have a few things going for us:

• Unlike the Independent American or Constitutionalist Parties, we’re not a bunch of whacko millenialists, and, unlike the Greens, we’re not a bunch of tree hugging hippies.  In other words, as far as third parties go, the Libertarians are fairly normal.  This is the conscious result of numerous purges in the State party over the past decade.
• The number of activists with direct ties to the Libertarian Party has doubled since the beginning of 2009.

In short, for the first time in a long, long time, the ground is increasingly favorable for the Libertarian Party here.  Unfortunately, we simply don’t have the tools to usefully exploit that - at least, not yet.  This brings us to what should be our near-term objectives, will will necessarily be limited in scope:

• Prove to Nevada that the Libertarian Party is normal.  Many people shun third parties because they believe that third parties consist of reality-challenged idealogues.  Ron Paul’s campaign was successfully derailed by the media presenting him as a 9/11 truther with Nazi sympathies; much of this was due to Ron Paul failing to control his message and failing to realize that, when someone asks you if you think 9/11 was a government conspiracy, you answer no.
• Become credible.  This is accomplished by gaining significant votes for Libertarian candidates - enough votes to actually swing elections and earn much needed publicity.
• Build a party apparatus.  Right now, the LP in Nevada is a few people that get together for drinks and the occasional meeting.  It needs to be more than that.
• Most importantly, stay on the ballot.  The other objectives will be impossible to meet if we fall off of the ballot for any reason.

This brings me to what our near-term strategy must be:

• Use the Republican Party’s loss of favor to encourage the media to come to Libertarians for a “conservative” voice.  This will increase exposure in the state and curry favor with the media.  If we build up long term relationships with the media, they will be less inclined to completely misrepresent us.
• Contact and work with what’s left of Ron Paul’s Campaign for Liberty group and the various student organizations in Nevada’s universities to create a like-minded coalition capable of generating voter registrations and attracting the youth (terrible voters but great volunteers).
• Stage successful community outreach programs that highlight the Libertarian agenda.  The various anti-bailout “Tea Parties” taking place around the country would be an excellent starting point.  Small four man protests, on the other hand, should be avoided.  This will almost certainly involve a coalition of like minded groups to pull off.
• Get organized in as many counties as practical.  Currently, there are only local affiliates in four counties, and Nye County’s presently pending affiliation is shaky at best.  This must be addressed as soon as possible, especially since rural races are relatively low hanging fruit, requiring less time and energy to successfully pursue.  This will almost certainly require abandoning, severely reducing, or completely restructuring the current dues-paying load for non-affiliated counties; presently, the total cost to become a member of the Nevada LP is $50 ($25 to the National LP, $25 to the State) for non-affiliated areas.  This is rather steep, especially since the major parties don’t require dues at all to join.
• Raise some money outside of “Welcome to the Party” sources.  The 1776 Brigade is a good start, albeit miserably executed.  There are numerous ways to raise money - banquets, meet & greets, general donations, actually asking people - all methods should be pursued.

These are my thoughts.  Hopefully somebody will be willing to add to them.

[1] - Luxembourg was overrun in both World Wars within a day.

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